The Decline of Civil Civilization

As the United States grapples with an alarming shift toward authoritarianism under Donald Trump’s second presidency, detailed in Garrett Graff’s August 25, 2025, article “America Tips Into Fascism,” scholars of civilizational cycles—Oswald Spengler, Arnold Toynbee, Pitirim Sorokin, Ibn Khaldun, and Camille Paglia—offer frameworks to interpret this moment. Their theories, rooted in the rise and fall of societies, suggest that America’s descent into fascism, coupled with resource scarcity, climate-driven crises, and cultural shifts toward hypermasculinity, signals a civilization in its twilight.

From January 1, 2024, to August 26, 2025, climate disasters claimed 2,394 US lives from heat-related causes, with 119,605 emergency visits, and 688 deaths from billion-dollar events like Hurricane Helene’s 219 fatalities. Globally, 11,500 perished in 151 extreme weather events, including 829 from Typhoon Yagi. Floods affected 43 million, with developing nations facing disproportionate impacts.

Parallel to the physical suffering is the emotional stree driven by climate change, as outlined by Rodielon Putol in his Earth.com article. A massive study of 1.2 billion social media posts from 2019 across 157 countries reveals that extreme heat, particularly above 95°F, increases negativity, on average, by 25% in lower-income countries and 8% in wealthier ones. Poorer nations, lacking air conditioning or robust infrastructure, bear the brunt, with emotional declines three times greater than in richer nations. This emotional pollution, analyzed using AI tools like BERT, underscores climate change as a mental health crisis.

By 2100, climate models predict a 2.3% worsening of emotional well-being due to heat, even with adaptation. This invisible cost of climate change—beyond physical or economic damage—highlights a global psychological burden, particularly for the most vulnerable. Social media, while not fully representative, offers a real-time glimpse into human sentiment, revealing how rising temperatures ferment irritability and despair. This emotional strain amplifies societal tensions, potentially fueling the discontent that authoritarian figures like Trump exploit.

Oswald Spengler: The Organic Decline of the West

Oswald Spengler, in The Decline of the West (1918), posited that civilizations follow a biological life cycle—birth, growth, maturity, and decline. For Spengler, the West entered its “winter” phase, marked by materialism, centralization of power, and the rise of “Caesar-like” figures. Trump’s authoritarianism, with its military occupations of cities like Los Angeles and Washington DC, and threats to New York and Chicago, embodies this archetype. Graff’s depiction of federalized National Guard units overriding local governance, as Mike Brock notes, reflects Spengler’s prediction of a shift from democratic “culture” to autocratic “civilization.” The purge of rule-of-law officials and control over cultural narratives—history, literature, sports—mirrors Spengler’s view of a civilization exhausting its creative vitality, turning inward to enforce conformity.

Spengler would see Trump’s rhetoric, labeling opponents “vermin” and immigrants as “poison,” as a symptom of cultural decay, where fear and resentment supplant reason. The 40% of Americans favoring authoritarianism, per a 2016 study by Matthew MacWilliams, and the 23% supporting political violence, per a 2023 PRRI poll, indicate a society losing its democratic ethos. Resource scarcity, with crude oil’s value-price mismatch ($63 per barrel equating to 4.5 years of labor), and climate-driven emotional stress—25% increased negativity in poorer nations—exacerbate this decline, pushing the West toward Spengler’s prophesied autocracy.

Arnold Toynbee: The Four Stages of Civilization

Arnold Toynbee, in A Study of History, outlined four stages of a civilization’s life cycle: genesis, growth, breakdown, and disintegration. America, in Toynbee’s framework, is in the breakdown phase, where internal schisms and external pressures fracture societal cohesion. Trump’s policies—corporate extortion (e.g., demanding 10% of Intel’s revenue), media control (CBS monitors, PBS defunded), and militarized governance—reflect the “dominant minority” imposing control to maintain power. The targeting of Democratic-led cities, despite low crime rates, and threats to seize voting machines in 2026, as Graff warns, signal a breakdown of federalism and democratic norms, aligning with Toynbee’s view of elites resorting to force when legitimacy wanes.

Climate change accelerates this breakdown. The 688 US deaths from billion-dollar disasters and 11,500 global fatalities from 151 events underscore environmental pressures that Toynbee saw as catalysts for collapse. The emotional toll, with a 2.3% predicted decline in well-being by 2100, fuels societal unrest, making populations vulnerable to authoritarian appeals. Toynbee’s “creative minority” could resist—through figures like Gavin Newsom or JB Pritzker—but the window narrows as dissent risks arrest, echoing Toynbee’s disintegration phase where societies fail to adapt creatively to existential challenges.

Pitirim Sorokin: Cyclical Shifts in Cultural Mentality

Pitirim Sorokin, in Social and Cultural Dynamics (1937), proposed that civilizations oscillate between ideational (spiritual, value-driven), sensate (materialistic, pleasure-seeking), and idealistic phases. America’s current sensate phase, obsessed with consumerism and technological spectacle, is crumbling under resource scarcity and climate stress. Trump’s authoritarianism, with its cult of personality and reliance on social media’s manic influence, reflects Sorokin’s sensate decline, where materialism breeds chaos and calls for strongman rule. The 38% of Americans supporting rule-breaking leaders, per the PRRI poll, and the radicalization of DHS, with 80% of deportees having no criminal record, illustrate a society prioritizing control over values.

The emotional strain of climate change, as Rodielon Putol’s study of 1.2 billion social media posts shows, amplifies this sensate crisis. Extreme heat increases negativity by 25% in poorer nations and 8% in wealthier ones, fermenting despair that Trump exploits through “us vs. them” rhetoric. Sorokin would argue that this sensate excess—evident in social media’s AI-driven dopamine manipulation—sets the stage for a violent ideational shift, where hypermasculine, nationalist ideologies, like those of the MAGA base, dominate.

Ibn Khaldun: The Cyclical Rise and Fall of States

Ibn Khaldun, in The Muqaddimah (1377), described the cyclical rise and fall of states through asabiyyah (group solidarity). Dynasties emerge with strong cohesion, weaken through luxury and corruption, and collapse under external or internal pressures. Trump’s presidency, with its crony fascism and $3 billion personal enrichment in three months, mirrors Khaldun’s decadent phase, where elites prioritize self-interest over collective good. The federalization of state National Guards and corporate extortion reflect a loss of asabiyyah, as the state alienates its citizens, particularly in Blue states.

Resource scarcity—coal, iron, oil depletion—and climate disasters, like the 43 million affected by global floods, erode societal cohesion. The emotional toll, with poorer nations facing three times the psychological impact of wealthier ones, weakens asabiyyah further, making populations susceptible to authoritarian promises of stability. Khaldun would see Trump’s MAGA base, including Christian nationalists like Mike Johnson attending a red heifer sacrifice in Jerusalem, as a new, albeit fanatical, asabiyyah challenging the old order, potentially hastening collapse.

Camille Paglia: The Hypermasculine Backlash

Camille Paglia, in works like Sexual Personae (1990), argues that gender-bending, trans-friendly cultures signal civilizational decadence, inevitably supplanted by hypermasculine forces from within or without. America’s progressive embrace of gender fluidity and inclusivity, Paglia would contend, has provoked a backlash embodied by Trump’s MAGA movement, with its patriarchal, nativist ethos. The radicalization of young men via social media, as Steve Bannon’s influence shows, aligns with Paglia’s view of hypermasculinity reasserting dominance in times of crisis. Trump’s rhetoric—calling immigrants “poison” and praising Orban—appeals to this demographic, framing “real Americans” as white, male, and aggrieved.

This hypermasculine shift intersects with resource scarcity and climate stress. The post-industrial myth, reliant on cheap fossil fuels, collapses as high-quality reserves dwindle, with Germany’s economic shrinkage and a 100% debt-to-GDP ratio looming as warnings. The emotional toll of heat, increasing irritability by 25% in vulnerable regions, fuels this backlash, as disenfranchised groups seek scapegoats. Paglia would see this as a cultural pendulum swinging toward raw power, with Trump’s lieutenants—Bondi, Noem, Patel—enacting a brutal, masculine reordering of society.

Groups Operating with ICE Against Immigrants (as of 26 August):

• National Guard: Up to 21,000 troops deployed to assist ICE with administrative tasks, case management, and transportation, authorized by the Trump administration to support deportation processes in 20 Republican-led states.

• Federal Agencies:

  • Customs and Border Protection (CBP): Provides personnel for targeted operations, e.g., in Los Angeles, and supports deportation flights.

  • Justice Department: Supplies 2,000 employees from FBI, U.S. Marshals Service, and DEA to prioritize immigration-related cases.

  • Internal Revenue Service (IRS): Contributes 250 agents, some providing tax information to locate immigrants, others authorized to make arrests.

  • Transportation Security Administration (TSA): Federal Air Marshals provide in-flight security for ICE deportation flights.

  • U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS): Hundreds of employees, including refugee operations staff, volunteer for ICE enforcement roles.

• State and Local Law Enforcement: Through 579 new 287(g) agreements, local police and sheriffs in 38 states assist ICE in identifying and detaining immigrants for deportation.

• U.S. Coast Guard: Supports maritime immigration enforcement, targeting smugglers.

• Private Detention Companies: Firms like Geo Group manage ICE detention facilities, handling detained immigrants.

• DHS “Volunteer Force”: A new initiative recruits Pentagon civilian employees (950,000 potential candidates) and retired federal workers for six-month deployments to support ICE and CBP in mass deportation operations. Described as a “volunteer force,” it involves administrative and enforcement tasks, with salaries ranging from $25,684 to $191,900 annually and significant travel requirements. ICE is also hiring 10,000 new agents, offering $50,000 signing bonuses and reduced age requirements, with 121,000 applications received.

This new “Volunteer Force” has already been compared to Hitler’s S.A., though recruits will likely be salaried detention camp guards. I think that, before long, the world will begin to hear about, and see, human rights abuses (to put it mildly—sexual torture is sure to be a huge feature in these camps) on a scale ten to a hundred times that of Abu Ghraib.

ICE’s anonymity (masked agents in unmarked vehicles who don’t display badges), aggressive tactics (despite the fact that 80% of the people they violently tackle and handcuff lack criminal records), and resemblance to an authoritarian paramilitary unit, make me wonder how, when ICE has another 16 months to expand before the midterm elections, how likely it is that those elections will free and fair, if they’re held.

Anthropocene Epilogue: A Sci-Fi, Aryan Wet Dream

The convergence of authoritarianism, resource scarcity, and climate collapse points to a grim future, where the Anthropocene may persist only in space, led by figures like Elon Musk. Since the 1960s, elites aware of fossil fuel-driven collapse have anticipated liberal democracy’s demise, as resource depletion and pollution render Earth increasingly untenable. The 11,500 global deaths from climate events and 119,605 US heat-related emergency visits underscore this crisis. Poorer nations, bearing three times the emotional toll, face existential threats, while wealthier ones, like the US, cling to dwindling resources.

Musk’s vision—a sci-fi, Aryan wet dream of space colonization—envisions a select 0.00001% of humanity surviving off-planet, leaving billions behind. His influence in Trump’s administration, through deregulation and control of platforms like X, amplifies authoritarian narratives, radicalizing the disaffected. This future, rooted in hypermasculine, techno-utopian ideals, excludes the diverse, inclusive ethos of liberal democracy, aligning with Paglia’s prediction of a masculine resurgence.

The MAGA base’s Christian nationalism, epitomized by Johnson’s red heifer ritual, merges with this vision, framing survival as a divine, exclusionary mandate. Of course, the Jews and Christians who believe that their lives will be saved by a messiah who literally descends from the sky, once certain conditions are fulfilled, will be in for a surprise.

Orthodox Jews and Evangelical Christians hold overlapping views on the Messiah’s arrival, or return, if we’re talking about Jesus, in Israel. Jews expect the ingathering of exiles, the rebuilding of the temple (after Solomon’s was destroyed in 587 BC, and the Second Temple, rebuilt 516 BC, was destroyed in 70 AD…necessitating the destruction of the Muslim mosque and Dome of the Rock now on the site); the restoration of the Sanhedrin (a supreme Jewish council for religious and legal rulings); then global peace, and then the Gog and Magog war (a prophetic battle involving nations against Israel, per Ezekiel 38-39). Evangelicals anticipate Israel’s “restoration,” global gospel preaching, the Antichrist’s rise, a rebuilt Third Temple, and the Great Tribulation (a period of intense suffering and divine judgment). This culminates in Armageddon…

In Orthodox Jewish tradition, “Armageddon” aligns loosely with the Gog and Magog war, where nations attack Israel, only to be defeated by God’s intervention, ushering in the Messianic Age. To Evangelicals, Armageddon is the final confrontation between the forces of the Antichrist (a global leader empowered by Satan) and Christ, who returns to defeat evil. While angels, led by Michael, may participate (based on Revelation 12 and Daniel 12:1), the focus in Revelation 16 and 19 is on Christ’s victory over human armies aligned with the Antichrist. Many Evangelicals believe the battle of Armageddon precedes or coincides with the national salvation of Israel, where the Jewish people recognize Jesus as the Messiah (Zechariah 12:10, Romans 11:26). This is seen as fulfilling God’s covenant with Israel. Some Christians (e.g., certain mainline Protestants) interpret Armageddon symbolically, seeing it as a past event, like the fall of Jerusalem in 70 CE or the collapse of the Roman Empire, rather than a future literal battle.

There are other interpretations, as usual. I’m of the symbolic, allegorical interpretation camp. Anyway, if wars like those described do occur, of course, nobody’s getting “raptured” up into the sky, though they might be “tornadoed” or “bomb blasted.” Anyone not in a high-tech bunker, orbiting space station, or moonbase at that point will die in short order.

Resistance and the Path Forward

Spengler, Toynbee, Sorokin, Khaldun, and Paglia would agree that America’s trajectory reflects a civilization in decline, driven by internal decay and external pressures. Yet, resistance remains possible. Toynbee’s “creative minority” could emerge through leaders like Newsom and Pritzker, organizing grassroots efforts—local Democratic meetings, calls to Congress (202-224-3121), protests—to defend constitutional norms. The 15 months until the 2026 midterms are critical, as military garrisoning of Blue cities escalates.

Economically, confronting the post-industrial myth requires re-localizing production and equitably managing resources. Technologically, regulating AI and social media, as MIT’s Global Sentiment project suggests, can curb manipulation, preserving human agency. Emotionally, communities must adapt to a warmer, angrier world, building resilience against climate-driven despair. As Thomas Paine wrote, “Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered.” The founders’ vision of active citizenship—organizing, voting, resisting—remains America’s best hope to defy the cyclical prophecies of decline and avert a fascist, dystopian future.