The 80-year Psychohistorical Cycle

The Credit Crisis of 1772 led to the American Revolutionary War (1765–1783, according to Wikipedia). Roughly eighty years later, the Panic of 1857 led to the American Civil War of 1861-65. Roughly 80 years later, the end of the Republican Great Depression led to World War II (1939-45). My father, whose painting “American Trinity” is pictured above, was born in 1922, lived through the Great Depression, piloted a B-17 over Europe in WWII (during which he became a heavy smoker), and died of metastasized cancer in 1980, just before the New Right (led by very wealthy supporters, many of whom were evangelical Christians who opposed the legalization of abortion, the feminist movement, and sex education in public schools) swept Reagan into the White House. Those who voted were older, whiter, and wealthier than those who did not vote. Strong support among older white voters with incomes over $50,000 proved crucial for Reagan’s victory. Now, 80 years after 1945, the US is on the verge of another depression and a third world war.

In his book, The Fourth Turning is Here, Neal Howe posits that 80 years (3-4 generations) is how long it takes for the generation that made the mistakes that produced the last depression to die off, and history to be forgotten, thus condemning the living to repeat it.

Today, as in 1772 (in Great Britain), 1857 and 1929, there is the same conservative greed and corruption, in the form of ultra-rich speculators in cahoots with a corrupt administration. “Give Trump and his corrupt cronies millions in campaign cash or purchases of his digital ‘coins’ and he’ll give you and your industry an exception to his tariffs; hell, give him enough money to win an election and he’ll even let you take over and then gut the American government and fire all the people conducting investigations into you and your companies.” www.rawstory.com/raw-investigates/economy-world-war/

Consumers are pulling back, anticipating a combined recession and tariff-driven inflation. Consumer spending drives 80% of the US GDP. Advertisers are pulling back. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo have reported to The Financial Times that they’re seeing significant and concerning defaults across the system among their credit card holders. Meanwhile, tourism to America, a massive industry representing about 4% of our GDP, has collapsed. Companies sales are decreasing, so they’re laying off workers, who then can’t be “good consumers.”

China is fighting back against Trump’s tariffs, as are the U.S. allies he has alienated. Last week, bond yields shot up, forcing Trump to put a 90-day pause on most of his tariffs. Meanwhile, the dollar is falling at the same time bond yields are rising, something that hasn’t happened since the last Republican Great Depression. The rest of the world is losing confidence in the US as a “safe haven” for their money.

About $8.5 trillion of the $36 trillion national debt is held by foreign governments (as treasuries), including $350 billion by Canada, $1 trillion by Japan, an estimated $1 trillion by China, and between $1.5 and $2 trillion by the EU. If they coordinate the dumping of their bonds, it will flood the market with US bonds and make it harder for the American Treasury Department to sell new debt issues, forcing us to increase the rate of interest we pay, driving up US mortgages (which just jumped over 7%) and other credit, make it harder for companies to finance expansion and new operations, while increasing the $1+ trillion annual interest cost to the US government to fund our own debt. The result, if sustained over even a few months, could be devastating.

On April 12, The Financial Times reported that the US dollar’s haven status was “under threat.” The article cites numerous credible sources, all arguing in one way or another that Trump’s erratic behavior is threatening to throw America into an existential fiscal crisis that we may not recover from for years.

“And this, just as Republicans in Congress are trying to raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion (which will have to be borrowed by selling that amount in additional treasuries) to fund their planned $4.5 trillion tax gift to Elon Musk and America’s other billionaires (including Trump and the 13 billionaires in his cabinet)…Republicans are entirely responsible for this loaded debt gun that’s now being put to our heads. Reagan’s tax gifts to billionaires (still in effect) have cost America at least $20 trillion; Bush’s have cost us around $6 trillion, plus another $6 trillion for the two illegal wars he lied us into to win the 2004 election; and Trump’s last tax cut cost us an estimated $5 trillion. That’s $37 trillion, and our national debt right now only stands at $36.22 trillion.” www.rawstory.com/raw-investigates/economy-world-war/

This has all happened due to Jude Wanniski’s 1976 “Two Santas” theory: Republican presidents should spend like crazy, stimulating the economy and creating the appearance of good times, to drive up the national debt. Then, when a Democrat is elected president, Republicans should scream about the national debt to force Democrats to “shoot their Santa” of Social Security and other social programs. Reagan followed this program, as has every succeeding Republican president. Now Trump’s tariffs are leading the US into another depression. He bankrupted or threw into crisis virtually every business he ever started, before running for president in 2016, and now he’s doing it to the country…like George W. Bush, the last “CEO President.”

“This is going to be rough for everybody except the morbidly rich, who are rubbing their hands with gleeful anticipation at the upcoming ‘buying opportunity of the century’ to acquire everything from small companies to real estate to stocks, all on sale at massive, depression-era-level discounts.” www.rawstory.com/raw-investigates/economy-world-war/

Meanwhile, the so-called Department of Government Efficiency has targeted at least 31 federal government agencies, resulting in the layoffs or firings of tens of thousands of employees. wikipedia.org/wiki/US_federal_agencies_targeted_by_DOGE “Trump has stuffed his Cabinet with tyrants, zealots and imbeciles – all bent on demolishing our government from within,” wrote Matt Taibbi, in 2017. Eight years later, we’re collectively having the worst déjà vu in 80 years, if not the entire history of the United States.

Meanwhile, US District Judge James Boasberg found probable cause to hold Trump’s administration in contempt of court over officials’ rush to deport hundreds of people despite the judge’s order. A New York Times investigation revealed that, aside from Kilmer Abrego Garcia, 90% of the Venezuelans deported to El Salvador’s CECOT gulag are not gang members and have no criminal records, but are ordinary people like students and workers caught in a merciless dragnet. The judge gave the administration one week, until April 23, to either have the US government retake custody of all the people that were sent to El Salvador, or start handing over the names of Trump officials for him to hold in criminal contempt.

The United States seems about to formally transition from constitutional federal republic to empire. Now allow me some poetic license: as technology advances, history “goes faster.” The Roman Republic existed for 482 years, from 509 BC to 27 BC, during which Rome's control expanded from the city's immediate surroundings to hegemony over the entire Mediterranean world. The U.S. declared its independence 249 years ago, though it has formally been a republic for only 237 years, since 1788, when the Constitution was ratified.

In 27 BC, the Roman Senate granted extraordinary powers to Octavian as Augustus, marking the end of the Republic and the beginning of the Roman Empire; 353 years later, in AD 380, Christianity became the official religion of the Roman Empire when the Edict of Thessalonica recognized the catholic orthodoxy. In the century following 380, the Western Roman Empire rapidly decayed and, by the end of the century, was no more…By the end of the 6th century the church within the Empire had become firmly tied with the imperial government.

I have a feeling that, barring surprising and dramatic displays of people power (that are, just as surprisingly, not met with brutal represssion), in less than four years Christianity will become the official religion of the United States (which will be led by an emperor in all but name), and firmly tied with the imperial government. By that time, barring the development and application of technologies that dramatically reduce greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and cool the oceans, we’ll be in the midst of mass die-offs of the non-millionaire/billionaire classes, not to mention most plant and animal life. For the 99.9%, it’s a great time to have 80 years of life behind you; very good to have 70, pretty good to have 60… For the 0.1%, it’s always great, materially—spiritually, not so much. Ninety-nine percent of them will get their comeuppance in the bardo.