Indo-Pak News

In the summer of 2004, an American pal of mine and I made an epic, month-long trip, north from New Delhi to Manali (which is due east of Dharamsala), where we stayed for a week; then north to Leh for a week; west to Srinagar (in Kashmir) for a week; and finally southeast to Dharamsala. On the second day of the two-day bus ride from Leh to Srinagar, which took place after it had rained a lot, we found that the cliff-side road had partially fallen away in half a dozen places, when the bus nearly tipped over the ledge at one point. I’ve never thought “This might be it” as much as I did for the hour or so we were on that section of that high-altitude road, and spontaneously declared, “My time has not yet come!”

When I noticed my pal sticking his head out the window, looking down over the cliff, I decided to compensate for the weight of his head on that side of the bus by leaping across the aisle to sit on the armrest of the seats occupied by two Korean Buddhist nuns—easily identified by their shaved heads and grey robes. I then whipped off my mala (rosary-bead) necklace and started chanting Om Mani Padme Hum for all I was worth. A few hours later, when we reached the bus terminal in Srinagar, the Korean nuns, who spoke near-zero English, ascertained that our final destination was Dharamsala, and made it known that they were attaching themselves to us, so my pal and I paid for the houseboat on which we all lived for a week, before renting a van to take us all to Dharamsala.

Living on a houseboat on Dal Lake in Kashmir was really fun! Think Bill Murray in The Razor’s Edge. In fact, think that about Leh, too, as sequences in The Razor’s Edge were filmed in each location. While in Kashmir, we went and visited one of many tombs of holy men from ancient days—the Roza Bal shrine, where some believe Jesus Christ (as Yuz Asaf) and his consort are entombed (Jesus having taken the Silk Road to Kashmir in his youth, and learned yogic techniques, including how to slow one’s metabolism to the point that one would appear dead). No women were allowed in, to our Korean friends’ chagrin.

Two years later, when my intrepid pal was traveling through Afghanistan as the guide and translator for a Lonely Planet author, he told him about the Tomb of Yuz Asaf in Srinagar, as they were viewing the remains of the Buddhas in Bamiyan Valley. He asked him not to mention it in any future Lonely Planet Guidebooks but, another couple of years later, the author was in Srinagar updating the North India guidebook for LP, visited the Roza Bal shrine, and included it in the LP guide. This led to a flood of tourists and, ultimately, the shrine being declared off-limits to all tourists.

I didn’t experience anything mystical in there, but I’m glad I went when I did. During many periods of time before and after 2004, tensions between India and Pakistan over majority Muslim Kashmir have prevented any tourists from visiting…like now.

On April 22, 2025, three men from The Resistance Front, thought to be a splinter group or cut-out of the terrorist organization Lashkar-e-Taiba, murdered 26 tourists and injured dozens more in the Pahalgam resort area of Kashmir, long a place of contention between India and Pakistan. Lashkar-e-Taiba initially claimed responsibility, stating that the attack was in opposition to Indian government policy allowing Indian citizens to live and work in Kashmir, that resulted in non-local settlement in the region. Four days later, they retracted their claim of responsibility. There is speculation that the groups are at least partly funded by Pakistan’s Inter Services Intellignce (ISI).

More than a week after the attack, there are strong indications that the terrorists involved remain active and hidden in south Kashmir, and credible input suggesting that more terrorists may still be hiding in the region, possibly to provide cover-fire in case security forces attempted a rapid response, National Investigation Agency sources said.

According to Indian news sources, the Pakistan Army has initiated unprovoked small arms firing across the Line of Control, violating a ceasefire for seven straight days since the terrorist attack. Indian Army officials said that Indian troops responded proportionately. Such exchanges of small arms fire have happened a lot, over the past decades, but the latest violation comes despite a hotline conversation on April 30 between the Directors General of Military Operations (DGMO) of India and Pakistan, aimed at addressing the ongoing cross-border firing. During the call, the Indian DGMO is said to have strongly warned his Pakistani counterpart about the continued ceasefire breaches by Pakistani forces along both the LoC and the International Border.

Meanwhile, India and Pakistan continued to take counter-measures against each other. On April 24, India suspended its 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan, which has survived three wars, but seen its share of bilateral strains—following high tensions in 2019, the Indian Prime Minister threatened to restrict water flow to Pakistan in the region. The April 24 "abeyance" of the World Bank-brokered Indus Waters Treaty was one of the first measures taken by Delhi after the Pahalgam attack.

Around 80% of Pakistan's irrigated land and hydropower depend on Indus Waters. Within a few days, satellite pictures seemed to indicate its impact on the Chenab river, among the three Western Rivers (Indus and Jhelum being the other two), which is running dry around Sialkot in Pakistan's Punjab. "Any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan as per the Indus Waters Treaty and the usurpation of the rights of lower riparian will be considered as an act of war," read an official statement by Pakistan, which has an agrarian economy and a breadbasket that is dependent on the treaty. “Water is our life. We can’t compromise on it,” said Khalid Khokhar, president of the Farmers’ Association. “If they do it, this is a war.”

On April 30, India issued a notice restricting its airspace to all aircraft registered, operated, or leased by Pakistan, including commercial airlines and military flights, at the moment in effect until May 23. Pakistani carriers had already started avoiding Indian airspace, reportedly due to concerns over possible retaliation.

Also on April 30, Pakistan said it had nothing to do with the Pahalgam terror attack, and threatened a strong response if it is "provoked," amid rising tensions with India. Not to be alarmist, but modeling for global nuclear war usually begins with a war between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, which has long been considered the likeliest scenario for a limited nuclear war.

The water situation in the Hindu Kush Himalaya is increasingly dire. Seasonal snowfall is down, and glaciers are retreating. Billions of people rely on water from the Indus River and its tributaries, in an area extending from Pakistan, India and Afghanistan, all the way across southern Asia and into southern China.

Visual artist David Robinson (who is the same age as I) wrote in a blogpost about his college professor, a scientist, who said, during the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-88, “If you think the oil wars are bad, just wait until the water wars,” introducing Robinson to the concept of climate change. I knew the quote, which I seem to remember hearing around the same time, but I thought it came from someone associated with the Reagan administration. Of course, plenty of people would have already foreseen the water wars around the time that “oil war” was becoming a common term.

Kashmir is 265 kilometers from Dharamsala by air, and 455 km by road. Amritsar—like Kashmir, right next to Pakistan—is about 150 km from Dharamsala by air, and 200 km by road. On the evening April 30, a search operation conducted in Amritsar district led to the recovery of two hand grenades, three pistols with six magazines, and 50 live rounds.

The international community has stepped up calls for restraint, urging both nations to avoid further military confrontation. Key Gulf nations, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, voiced concern over the deteriorating situation, particularly the continued cross-border exchanges, and urged a return to dialogue and diplomacy. Over the past few days, Gulf countries have maintained active communication with leadership in both New Delhi and Islamabad. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, emphasizing the need for de-escalation, and "the need to condemn the terror attack on April 22 in Pahalgam." Um, yeah.

Here in Dharamsala, the locals I know don’t seem worried, probably because Dharamsala has remained a quiet hill station, despite India and Pakistan having fought four wars since the first one in 1947-48, and over a dozen other armed engagements, standoffs, and skirmishes, some of which—like the one in Kashmir—are ongoing.